Tsunami Tuesday--05 February '08

Here are the Democratic races on "Tsunami Tuesday," along with the type of race and pledged delegates. (I am not counting the number of "super delegates" since it is still unclear how they will be awarded, not to mention how they will vote. I sincerely hope that they are abolished after this election cycle.) Some of these races are "closed" meaning that only registered Democrats (not Republicans or Independents) can vote. But, unlike with the Republicans, all Democratic primaries and caucuses are awarded delegates based on proportion of the vote won. None of these races are "winner take all." So, for instance, Hillary Clinton could win some delegates from Obama's home state of Illinois and Obama could win delegates from Clinton's home state of New York--even though the hometown favorites will probably come in first in their respective home states. Also, conceivably, John Edwards, though he has yet to win a primary or caucus, could still keep winning delegates up to the Democratic National Convention and be in a position to play King or Queen maker or influence platform positions. (There are rumors that the Obama campaign is considering Edwards for the role of Atty. General if Obama should win the White House. Edwards, by all accounts a brilliant trial lawyer, could use that office to defend Labor, enforce civil rights and voting rights, prosecute polluters and safety violators, etc. If offered, I think he would take that job, especially if some of his positions on healthcare, etc. were quietly adopted by Obama.)

Alabama: Primary 52

Alaska: Caucuses 13

American Samoa: Primary 3 (A territory rather than a state, it has no representation in Congress, but American Samoans are citizens who vote in presidential elections.0

Arizona: Primary 56 (Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama, but the state is heavily Republican and, in the general election, is likely to vote Republican, especially if the GOP nominee is favorite son Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)).

Arkansas : Primary 35

California: Primary 370 (This is the big prize and has often been decisive in both the primaries and the general election because it is the most populous state in the union. Latinos are 35% of the population and Asians are 12.5%, while only 6% are African-American. Another wild card is that absentee balloting accounts for about 40% of California's voting--and those primary votes are already cast.)

Colorado: Caucus 55 (The Democratic National Convention will be held in Denver. This is one of those Western states that has been mostly Republican in the past, but is trending Democratic.)

Connecticut: Primary 48 (Now that favorite son, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) dropped out following the Iowa caucuses, how will CT vote? I would think that to win a Dodd endorsement, either Obama or Clinton would have to return to the Senate briefly to help him defeat the GOP attempts at permanent warrantless wiretapping with immunity for telecom companies.)

Delaware: Primary 15 (Ditto above, now that Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) has dropped out? Biden is a DLC Democrat and I would think he helps Hillary Clinton campaign here.)

Democrats Abroad: Primary 7

Georgia: Primary 87

Idaho: Caucus 18

Illinois: Primary 153 (Obama has homecourt advantage, but the breaking news of the arrest of Tony Rezko, even though Obama has returned campaign contributions and has not been linked at all with Rezko's corruption charges, could hurt. The Chicago Tribune is writing editorials critical of Obama's ties, even though they are nowhere as close as many other Illinois politicians--and even Hillary Clinton had Rezko raise money for her.)

Kansas: Caucus 32

Massachussetts: Primary 93 (Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA) and both of Mass.' senators, Kerry (D-MA), and Kennedy (D-MA), are endorsing Obama.)

Minnesota: Caucus: 72

Missouri: Primary 72 (Obama has been endorsed by Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and fmr. Sen. Carnahan (D-MO)

New Jersey: Primary 107

New Mexico: Caucuses 26 (Heavily Latino. I'd love to see Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) endorse Obama, but he has so far stayed neutral.)

New York: Primary 232 (Hillary Clinton's home turf. She has the endorsement of Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee and of the New York Times, and many influential politicians and Afrian-American ministers here. But, Obama also has supporters, including fundraisers, here and has won the endorsement of the liberal New York Daily News. Still, I'd be very surprised if Clinton doesn't win NY.)

North Dakota: Caucuses 13

Oklahoma: Primary 38

Tennessee: Primary 68

Utah: Primary 23

If this round of voting (amounting to a national primary) does not end in a clear nominee, which seems increasingly likely, the next round of voting comes on 09 February and then throughout the month. Another wave comes in March and then leftovers. Kentucky's primary is not until 20 May '08. That would ordinarily mean that our 47 delegates are irrelevant to the selection of the nominee--but that may not be the case this year. We'll see.