Monday, January 28, 2008

Is There a "Historic Latino Reluctance" to Vote for Black Candidates?

Not according to Gregory Rodriquez of the L.A. Times. Is "the Nevada Phenomenon" a real worry for Obama or a Clintonian myth? We will see. Obama got quite a bit of Latino support in the Illinois State Senate and then in his race for the U.S. Senate. There may have been numerous reasons for his lack of said support in Nevada (e.g., the negative ad in Spanish put out by Unite Here which he did not rebuke and which seems to have backfired, or the voter intimidation that Bill Clinton did, etc.) that had little to do with "historic Black/Brown tensions" so pontificated endlessly by white talking heads. The number of Latino endorsements for Obama has been less than for Clinton, but growing--and Obama doesn't have to win them all or even a majority. He has to do better with Latinos than he did in Nevada--somewhere in the 35%-45% region--in order to remain competitive. I think he can do this.

I think the Clintons are trying to pit Southern whites and Latinos against African-Americans in order to defeat Obama--and then she magically expects the rainbow coalition to coalesce again for November. It's a dangerous strategy and so small minded.

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