Obama/Clinton in Statistical Dead Heat on Eve of Super Tuesday

I have been ill for a few days--too ill to come down to a cold basement and blog or even check email. I will not watch the Super Tuesday returns tomorrow because my nerves would give out and I might have a relapse.

Because this is all about delegates, Obama doesn't have to win tomorrow--just keep from losing. If he keeps the delegate count close, plus wins enough states outright for some psychological victories, then the momentum should continue to be on his side in the races that follow tomorrow. If, however, Clinton wins big early, she won't likely win enough delegates tomorrow to win the nomination outright (as she once dreamed--this schedule was originally--back when she was considered the "inevitable" nominee--urged on party leaders by her campaign so that she could wrap up the nomination early and spend most of the Spring preparing for the GOP in the Fall). But she might stop Obama's momentum tomorrow as she did in NH.

5 key variables:

1. Early voting. Many primaries allowed for early voting (which may have been 40% of the total in California!) when Clinton still had double-digit leads over Obama and 85% of the institutional Democratic Party support. It could be her firewall against the Obama momentum.
2. Latinos: I do not buy into the media hype about Latinos refusing to vote for African-Americans. But the Clintons (and they come as a package) had a long and good history with Latinos and so, early on, you saw more support for Hillary Clinton by Latinos--just as you early on saw more Clinton support among African-Americans than Obama. That gap is narrowing (or appears to be) and more Latino leaders are endorsing Obama, but we won't know how many until tomorrow night.
3. Women: 51% of the nation, nearly 60% of the Democratic Party, especially in CA. Can Obama get enough of the women's vote? He did not in NH, but he did in Iowa and S. Carolina and it split fairly evenly in NV. Older white women have been Hillary's base, but is Obama cutting into it--and, if so, has he done so well enough by tomorrow.
4. Edwards' voters: Where will they go? And, will the Edwards' voters who voted early claim some delegates in several of these primaries and caucuses? (The Edwards' delegates will go to the national convention uncommitted, as will his superdelegates.)
5. Young voters. This has been Obama's strength, although Clinton has attracted some, too. Their turnout could be the key. And weather could be a key factor in turnout. We've had some of the worst weather this winter this past week.

I'll see everyone on Wednesday. My nerves simply cannot take watching this tomorrow.