Clinton Wins "Big" States; Obama Wins More States; Delegate Count Close

Well, while last night was not as good as I hoped it would be for Barack Obama, it was about as good as could reasonably be expected given that a week ago Clinton still had a 20 point lead nationally and commanding leads in most of the primary and caucus states up for grabs, yesterday. Given the short time frame since his SC win, Obama did very, very well. I would like to have seen him pick up MA and AZ (never really believing he had a chance for a complete win in CA), but am otherwise very content. Had there been 2 weeks between SC and "Super Tuesday," instead of one week, I am convinced that last night would have been very bad for Sen. Clinton, instead of this near-draw. Remember, this crazy schedule was partly influenced by the Clintons who had planned to end the primary season early. Until Obama's surprise win in Iowa last month, Clinton believed she would have sewn up the nomination on 05 February. She hasn't and Obama is in great shape to win the races that follow (except, possibly, PA, where she has a tremendous following).

• Obama won all 7 of the caucus states.
• Obama won most of the "red" states which usually vote Republican, but could possibly flip Democratic in the Fall if he is the nominee.
• Obama made gains among Latinos, though Clinton still has an advantage among them. (At least this should end the stupid media claim that "Latinos won't vote for a black man!")
• Obama made large gains among Clinton's key strength--women, especially white women.
• Obama won more white males, especially in the South, so some real racial progress has been made.
• The Obama campaign claims it won more delegates, but I think the final results are not yet in for delegate count. It seems fairly close. (Obama claims it is 847 to 834, not counting unpledged superdelegates.) ABC News' delegate counter claims Clinton now leads with 872 to Obama's 793. Even if ABC is right, that's only a 79 delegate lead for Clinton which can erased later this month.

State by State results:

AL: Obama ; Huckabee wins for GOP

AK: Obama; Romney for GOP

AR: Clinton; Huckabee for GOP. Note: Clinton was 1st Lady of Arkansas before she was U.S. First Lady and Huckabee followed Bill Clinton as Arkansas governor. So, this was locked up for both.

AZ: Clinton; McCain for GOP. This was a slight disappointment since it looked like Obama had a real chance here (and it was close). Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), who is very popular, endorsed Obama and is on his shortlist for VP. This is McCain's home state, of course. Notice that Clinton and Obama split the Latino vote here fairly evenly.

CA: Clinton; McCain for GOP. The final delegate split in CA will be interesting.

CO: Obama; Romney for GOP. Obama won the Latino vote here. Denver, CO will host the '08 Democratic Convention.

CT: Obama; McCain for GOP. This was a big win for Obama since CT is New York's "backyard," and since Clinton is a favorite daughter from her years in Yale Law School.

DE: Obama; McCain for GOP.

GA: Obama; Huckabee for GOP.

ID: Obama; No GOP race. Another red state victory for Obama, but it is doubtful that ANY Democratic candidate can carry Idaho in the general election.

IL: Obama; McCain for GOP. This was Obama's home turf, but Clinton grew up here and hoped to make inroads (and failed). 153 delegates were at stake.

KS: Obama; No GOP race yesterday. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D), an Obama supporter, will probably be on his shortlist for running mates.

MA: Clinton; Romney for GOP. This was my big disappointment. I knew Clinton had enjoyed a huge lead, but I thought with Gov. Deval Patrick (D), and both of MA's senators (Kennedy and Kerry) backing Obama, he might pull off a win. Hard to beat the clock. Clinton, naturally, is crowing over this one, saying that she "beat the Kennedys" in there own backyard.

MN: Obama; Romney for GOP. Recent polls had shown a 6% lead for Clinton, so this was a good win. MN is a strong peace state and I think the MoveOn.org endorsement may have helped Obama put this one over the top.

MO: Obama; McCain for GOP. This was a squeaker and the AP wire service and some TV networks originally called this for Clinton! This will be a key battleground in the gen. election: Missouri has voted with the presidential winner every time since Harry Truman in '48! It is a "middle" middle America. I think Obama can take McCain here, but can Clinton?

MT: No Dem. race, yesterday; Romney for GOP.

ND: Obama; Romney for GOP.

NJ: Clinton; McCain for GOP. Too many people were surprised at this result. Yes, recent polls had shown it to be competitive, but when Obama flew in for a last minute campaign stop this weekend, he received a far smaller crowd than everywhere else, which I thought was a telling sign. NJ seldom votes for a different candidate than NY and is in the same TV broadcast areas.

NM: Still too close to call! This would be a significant victory for Obama: Heavy Latino population and Gov. Richardson (D) (himself a former presidential candidate) seemed to "all but" endorse Clinton by watching the Superbowl Sunday with fmr. Pres. Bill Clinton. No GOP race yesterday.

NY: Clinton; McCain for GOP. Since Clinton is Sen. from NY, there was little doubt she would win. I will be interested to see if Obama managed to win NYC (as seemed possible) and poach a number of delegates from her.

OK: Clinton; McCain for GOP. Clinton had a big lead here and Obama didn't have time to campaign here.

TN: Clinton; Huckabee for GOP.

UT: Obama; Romney for GOP.

WV: No Dem. race yesterday; Huckabee for GOP.

American Samoa: Clinton; No GOP race here yesterday.

No results found, yet for Democrats Abroad.

Next up:

Saturday 09 Feb. : Louisiana (primary; 56 delegates at stake; Obama favored to win); Nebraska (caucus, 24 del.; Obama favored to win); Washington state (caucus; 78 dels; Clinton favored since Gov. Christine Gregoire, and Sens. Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell have all backed her. But Washington is a fairly liberal state with a strong peace contingency, so Obama may be able to pull this one out with a good ground game.); U.S. Virgin Islands (primary; 3 del.; I don't know who to favor here: Clinton has an advantage in U.S. territories because of name recognition--they are mostly too far away for the candidates to campaign in person. But the Virgin Islands have a large black population, so we'll see.)

Sunday 10 Feb.: Maine (caucus, 24 del.; Is Maine like New Hampshire?)

Tuesday 12 Feb.: District of Columbia (primary, 15 del.; Obama favored to win); Maryland (primary, 70 del.; Obama favored to win); Virginia (primary, 83 del.; Obama favored to win).

Tuesday 19 Feb.: Hawaii (caucus, 20 del.; I have no idea who is favored); Wisconsin (primary, 74 del., Obama favored to win)

Clinton is counting on the large states of Ohio and Texas in March and Pennsylvania in April, but Obama now has more money and may be able to roll into March better equipped. The longer the race goes on, the better his chances.