This week Obama picked up endorsements from Iowa Gov. Culver (D-IA) (He tried to stay neutral while Iowa was front and center, but had some family members involved in the Clinton campaign and others in the John Edwards campaign. Hey, it's another superdelegate for Obama, anyway.), Washington State's Gov., Chris Gregoire (D-WA) and Rep. John Yarmuth (D-3rd-KY). He also picked up the endorsement of Ohio's largest newspaper, The Cleveland Plain Dealer--which is also the hometown newspaper of Cleveland, the most heavily Democratic city in the swing state of Ohio. 141 delegates are at stake in Ohio on March 4th.
Today, he won the Louisiana Primary (57% to Clinton's 36%), and Nebraska (68% to Clinton's 32%) and Washington State Caucuses (68% to Clinton's 31%). He also won the primary in the U.S. Virgin Islands so strongly that he will pick up all 3 of its delegates (whereas on Tues. Clinton won American Samoa, the only other non-state territory to have yet voted, in a way that split their delegates--2 for Clinton and 1 for Obama).
This brings Obama ahead in the delegate count:
Prior to tonight (pledged delegates only): Obama: 910 : Clinton: 882 (2, 025 needed to win)
The math for tonight suggests the following new totals:
Louisiana delegate projection: Obama: 32; Clinton: 24
Nebraska delegate projection: Obama: 16; Clinton: 8
Washington (State) delegate projection: Obama: 52; Clinton: 26
U.S. Virgin Islands delegate projection: Obama: 3; Clinton: 0
If these projections hold up, this gives us a new total of Obama: 1,013; Clinton: 940.
When one counts the superdelegates, Clinton regains the lead, though not by terribly much. And superdelegates can change their minds--the majority of them haven't decided for anyone and DNC Chair Howard Dean will put pressure on the superdelegates not to override the choice of the voters. However, it remains unclear whether either candidate can win the 2, 025 necessary for nomination if they keep dividing fairly evenly in the big states.
A movement has arisen to count the delegates from Michigan and Florida (stripped of their delegates by the DNC for moving up their primaries too early), not by simply seating them as Clinton wants (hers was the only name on Michigan's ballot and since candidates pledged not to campaign in these states, her greater name recognition led her to win both MI and FL--which is why she wants them to count), but by having them hold caucuses, instead, in early April--prior to Pennsylvania's 22 April primary. I think that makes sense. I never agreed with stripping these crucial states of their delegates, but would like fair contests for them. I think Obama has a better shot at winning a caucus in MI, but FL Dems tend to be more conservative, so he would have to work hard to keep her from winning by more than 55%. It does help that he does better with caucuses, because of the better ground game--an area where Clinton was expected to excel.
Tomorrow: Maine, which I hope will be another Obama victory.
Yes, we can!
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4 comments:
Michael,
The news keeps getting better, and Obama is now on a roll. If he keeps winning and Hillary keeps reeling, he may have enough momentum going to win at least Ohio if not Texas. If Ohio goes, then Pennsylvania could go his way.
At that point, I think someone will step in -- probably Al Gore -- and say, okay let's bring this to a close. I don't think Howard Dean is going to let this get decided at the Convention. There will be something worked out prior to that date, which might include an Obama-Clinton slate. I'd prefer Kathleen Sebelius, but this maybe the only way to put this together prior to the convention. A divisive convention could hand this to McCain.
Bob,
An Obama-Clinton slate is less than ideal but, if neither can obtain the minimum number of delegates to lock up the nomination, then that sort of solution is understandable. The good news is that, at least prior to Dick Cheney, VPs don't really do a whole lot anyway other than nominally preside over the Senate. Again, not the ideal but probably a workable solution.
New polling suggests that Obama may have more of a chance catching Clinton in Texas than Ohio. If he wins 1 and keeps the other race close, even her strongest supporters say that she is out of it. New union endorsements are helping, too.
I liked it.
Bathmate
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