The Clintons are Losing Black America

After watching Obama's polling among Southern whites go downhill, I have been worried that the Clintons have not only been trying to push a black/Latino divide, but have been trying to kill Obama's white support by painting him as "just a black candidate" and therefore leaving whites, especially Southern whites, who were previously attracted to him wondering what stake they have in his candidacy. (Remember, most people do NOT decide elections on the issues.) Jack and Jill Politics, a political blog from an African-American viewpoint that I have begun reading in recent weeks, gives an outline of how the Clintons are beginning to lose Black America. They might defeat Obama in the primaries this way (whites and Latinos are more numerous), but it is a sure fire recipe to lose the general election--and maybe damage the party for years to come. I urge reading this thoughtful essay.

http://jackandjillpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/01/clintons-black-folk-and-america.html

Michelle Obama v. Bill Clinton?

CNN: Michell Obama a greater assett than "the other leading candidate's spouse." Also, notes that it is the two Yale Law School grads (the Clintons) vs. two Harvard Law School grads. (Hmm, I wonder if that's one reason my friend, Texas in Africa, no Hillary fan, but a Yalie who has returned to the Lone Star State, is less than enthusiastic about Obama?)

Obama Videos

Some new Obama videos. 1st up, is his sermon last Sunday at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Martin Luther King, Jr. was once the pastor. The man introducing him (who endorsed no one and had both Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee at the MLK Day ceremonies the next day) is the current pastor, Rev. Dr. Raphael G. Warnock, whom I have met. We are both strong members of the Baptist Peace Fellowship of North America and I had the privilege 2 summers ago of giving an award to the legendary civil rights leader, Rev. C. T. Vivian, from that very pulpit. It is humbling for a Southern good ol'boy whose parents were bit players in the Movement, I'll tell you.




The next video is from a rally in Sumter, SC:



The final video today is an interview with Maya Soetoro-Ng, Barack's half-sister, who is Asian-American. I found it fascinating and one more reason to consider him the first real 21st C. U.S. presidential candidate.

Kentucky Political Updates

Lot's of political news around the Commonwealth, today. Let's get to it:

1. It looks like several Republicans are planning to challenge my wonderful Congressional Representative, John Yarmuth (D-KY) of KY's 3rd District, for reelection. Bush/McConnell hatchet woman, Anne Northup, whom Yarmuth defeated in '06 and who then proceeded to lose a primary challenge to scandal-ridden Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) last year (before Fletcher himself went down in the Gen. Elect last November), is considering a rematch with Yarmuth. Well, Northup's a strong campaigner and kept her Congressional seat for 10 years in a district far more liberal than she is by playing pork politics extremely well. And, since every time a Congressional district changes parties, the next 2 year election is when it is MOST vulnerable to switching back, a Northup challenge would be something to take very seriously--especially since Yarmuth beat her by less than 6,000 votes. But Yarmuth has been given one of the highest ratings of any frosh Representative. And he was elected on the promise to stand up to the Bush admin and has done so with remarkable consistency. Plus, since he, like Northup, is personally wealthy, he has kept a campaign promise to donate his entire Congressional salary to charity. So, I am confident that Yarmuth could withstand an assault by Northup. But, now, there are other GOP contenders: Bob Devore, Jr. of Fern Creek, an unknown GOP candidate has filed to run. Real estate developer Chris Thieneman, who successfully campaigned to kill a tax referendum that would have allowed our public libraries to improve and expand (Thieneman claimed we could do this without a tax, simply by issuing a bond--but the economy won't grow to support that!) announced that he will file even if Queen Anne does, too. And, Todd Lally, a pilot for UPS, is considering a run. Any more? The way I see it, a crowded primary for the GOP does nothing but help Yarmuth! Heck, let's have a brawl between Northup and Thieneman as we saw between Northup and Fletcher last year--with the same result, both lose!
2. Why will Yarmuth win? Because he's smart and knows what the Commonwealth and the nation needs. In the face of the looming recession, Yarmuth is not content with playing around with tax rebates or lowering interest rates. No, he's going to the heart of the matter and helping small businesses--which create 50% of all new jobs in the U.S. Yarmuth introduced legislation yesterday, co-sponsored by Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL) and Paul Hodes (D-NH), to allow small businesses losing money this year to spread their losses over five years. The legislation would also allow small business owners to write off up to $250,000 of their business expenses, instead of the currently allowed $125,000. Now, by itself, this legislation will hardly prevent the economic recession that may have already begun--but it has to help. And, it's targeted correctly--not at global corporations which can absorb the losses, but at the small businesses that help all of middle America. Yarmuth is also proposing separate legislation that will add $300 to the earned income child deduction for individual taxation, bringing that to $1,300--which will help struggling families. This the kind of leadership we NEVER got from Northup and which we certainly won't see from Mr. "I Hate Libraries." So, keep it up, John. You are the best Rep. this district has had since Romano Mazzoli (D-KY) retired. We've waited a long time for this kind of voice in Washington and now that we have it, we'll sure fight to keep it!
3. Advocates for the disabled rallied in Frankfort to keep Gov. Beshear from cutting services in the face of our huge budget problems. Beshear said he would "try" not to cut services. But he refuses to consider raising our cigarette tax (3rd lowest in the nation) and is putting all his hopes for new revenue on casino gambling--even though there is little guarantee that an amendment to the state constitution will pass allowing such gaming--and there are plenty of reasons to vote against it. 29% of Kentuckians smoke, we have one of the highest teen smoking rates and 1 out of 4 pregnant women in this state smoke. Raise the cigarette tax by $.30--the Commonwealth needs the revenue and we need incentives that prevent teens from starting to smoke and encourage others to quit! The Fletcher admin has left the state broke just as the economy is taking a dive. Risking all our progress in education, etc. through slash-and-burn budgets, or risking all new revenue on casino gambling (with its attendent social problems!) is foolish. Wise up, Governor.
4. NAACP gives "Fs" to Kentuckiana GOP lawmakers
   The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) has released its latest "Civil Rights Federal Legislative Report Card," and it gives failing grades to all the Kentuckiana Republicans in Congress.The NAACP's ratings, based on 15 votes in the Senate and 25 votes in the House last year, are based on whether lawmakers voted with or against the positions of the civil rights group on legislation it considered of special interest to African Americans and supporters of civil rights.Anything below 59 percent was rated an "F." The Democrats landed either an "A" (90-100 percent) or "B" (80-89 percent).Here are the ratings:Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.: 27 percent. (More reason to Ditch Mitch in '08. Give now to the campaign of Andrew Horne!)Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky.: 13 percent. (Good grief!) Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind.: 47 percent. Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind.: 93 percent. Rep. Ed Whitfield, R-1st District: 52 percent. Rep. Ron Lewis, R-2nd District: 28 percent. (Do we have a good challenger to Lewis this year?0 Rep. John Yarmuth, D-3rd District: 96 percent. (Wow!) Rep. Geoff Davis, R-4th District: 36 percent .Rep. Hal Rogers, R-5th District: 40 percent.Rep. Ben Chandler, D-6th District: 92 percent. Rep. Baron Hill, D-9th District: 88 percent

Democrats: I'm Starting to Worry

Many Democrats seem to think that victory in this year's presidential campaign, plus many Congressional and Senate campaigns is a given. The only question is how big the win will be.

Count me skeptical. YES, we have many structural factors in our favor:

• Largely because of the Bush administration's behavior these past 7 years, fewer voters are registered Republican while the ranks of the Democratic Party and of Independents are growing.
• Voter turnout is higher in all of the primaries so far, and higher in the Democratic than GOP primaries.
• The economy is getting worse and usually the party in power is blamed for economic problems on their watch (often with good reason). Historically, Democrats have bailed the country out of far more recessions and depressions than have Republicans.
• The war/occupation is no longer the lead story every night on the news, but it is still a large concern. The people want it ended and every Democratic candidate is pledging to end it (differing only on how quickly and with what strategy, now) and the only GOP candidate pledging to end it is the unelectable Ron Paul.
• The majority of people poll in favor of Democratic positions on most issues, rather than GOP ones--with gun control a major exception, but none of the Democratic candidates left are pledging sweeping gun control measures.
• The environment, education, healthcare and saving Social Security, all issues where Democrats do better, are high concern items for the public and getting higher.
• The GOP mantra that "government is not the answer, government is the problem" is being rejected en masse for the first time since 1980. After watching incredible government ineptitude for 7 years, people are getting the idea that one should elect people to government posts who believe in those posts and who are able to make them function. Further, people poll as now believing that government should be a major actor in changing lives for the better--a belief that clearly favors Democrats.

So, we should be able to count on many victories this Fall--not only with the White House, but also in many Congressional and Senate races.

BUT--there are reasons NOT to take anything for granted:

• The Lee Atwater/Karl Rove playbook is still alive and well. The GOP will play many dirty tricks to confuse voters, demonize Democrats and depress voter turnout.
• Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) may be the GOP nominee. Although he is very pro-war, he is anti-torture and respected as both a military hero and as a straight talker. He polls well with moderate Republicans, independents, and conservative Democrats. That means he is the most electable of the GOP candidates. We never thought he would get this far because he is hated by the GOP rightwing which is a strong part of their base. But Republicans care about electability, too. The neo-cons will like him on the war and the Religious Right, whatever their other problems with him, know that he has always been strongly against abortion. They may put up with the parts of his profile they don't like in the hopes to keep the White House and not lose much in Congress. Unlike any of the other GOP candidates, McCain will not be easy to beat in a general election.
• If the Democratic nominee is Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), it will be very difficult to win any Southern states or many Midwestern states. Her negatives are the highest of any Democratic candidate, even though much "Hillary hatred" is irrational and unwarranted. While she leaves the progressive wing of the Democratic party cold, especially its peace wing of which I am a part, she infuriates the GOP base. Thus, if she is the nominee, she could do more to turn out a GOP base that might otherwise stay home than she would in turning out Democratic voters--not to mention independents. If she wins, it will likely be close.
• Pres. Bill Clinton, although very popular with many Democrats, is not popular with independents, any Republican, or new voters, who don't remember him. He must shut up! His remarks are so divisive that even if they work in securing the nomination for his wife, they could well cost us the election. Sen. Clinton's reply that all 3 candidates have "very passionate spouses who stick up for them" is disingenuous. Yes, Elizabeth Edwards and Michelle Obama are strong personalities and strong campaigners. But (a) they don't get the press coverage Bill Clinton does, (b) they haven't said nasty things about Hillary Clinton, and (c) none of them is a former U.S. president who should be supporting the entire party, not just his wife! (George H. W. Bush supported W's candidacy, but did not campaign for him, nor say anything about any of his rivals in the GOP in 2000.) No former president (as opposed to nominee) has ever endorsed a candidate in the primary until Bill Clinton. Someone shut him up, before he costs us our biggest chance for both the White House and a working progressive majority in years!
• If the race is close, the GOP has proven very adept at stealing the election.
• Racial prejudice may still play a large part in presidential politics. The "Bradley effect," whites telling pollsters they will vote for an African-American when they won't, is hard to measure, but it seems to have been a real factor in several gubanatorial elections. So, if Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) is the nominee, he will have to bring in enough new voters (young people), independents, and disgusted Republicans to offset any "Bradley effect."
• The fighting between Sens. Clinton and Obama (and, from where I sit, neither is guiltless) could split the party. It has happened before. In 1980, the primary feud between Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and Pres. Jimmy Carter was so intense that it didn't heal even after the Democratic National Convention. It was one of the factors in the election victory of Ronald Reagan. (Reagan w0n in '80 by a very slim margin, although he won reelection in '84 by a landslide. A united and energized Democratic Party could have beaten him in '80.)
• The Party CANNOT split along lines of race and gender. C'mon, people! Women are nearly 60% of the Democratic Party--which is why that witch, Ann Coulter, said she wanted to take away the vote from women: to "spare the country any more Democratic presidents!" None of our candidates can win without large female support. African-Americans are only 13% of the population, but they vote 90% Democratic. None of our candidates can win without significant African-American support. Latinos are the largest growing ethnic group in the country--by 2040, we will have no majority ethnic group (whites will be a plurality) and Latinos may pass whites as the largest of the no-majority groups before 2050. Latinos vote Democratic over 60% of the time.

I'm NOT calling for any letting up on vigorous campaigning (although I hope Edwards drops out, soon). I hope it continues to be a hard fought race--so my primary vote may actually count in May. But, let us all pledge to support the nominee and let us campaign in ways that do not make such unity difficult later. We have to be working NOW to Get Out the Vote and to elect progressives in both Houses of Congress. We don't want 2008 to be yet another year when Democrats shoot themselves in the foot and aid in our own defeat! (I swear, if we screw this up, I may move to Canada.) The stakes are too high, folks--not just for the Party or the Nation, but the world.

Democratic Delegate Count

Okay, if we ONLY count pledged Democratic delegates, Obama is slightly ahead. But if we count superdelegates (which ought to be abolished and are a way to keep establishment candidates in front of insurgent grassroots campaigns), who will not be firmly committed until at least April (later if there is no clear nominee, yet), then Clinton has a dramatic lead.

Pledged delegates only:

• Obama 38
• Clinton 36
• Edwards 18

With superdelegates added:

• Clinton 210
• Obama 123
• Edwards 52

I hope whomever the Democratic nominee is, they pledge to end the tyranny of superdelegates as part of overall campaign reform. No wonder other nations wonder that we have anything close to democracy, here!

Post-Nevada Reflections

First off, congratulations to all the Hillary Clinton supporters out there. I will support the Democratic nominee even if she should be Sen. Clinton. I don't think Clinton should be the nominee, but even she is lightyears ahead of any of the GOP presidential candidates.

Second, please John Edwards, drop out, now. True, even with your 4% of the vote, Obama would still have narrowly lost Nevada to Clinton. But it is clear, now, that you cannot win, cannot keep racking up delegates to play king or queen maker at the convention, and can only keep splitting the "left of Clinton" vote. Drop out and work for Obama in SC. Since, as I reported yesterday, he seems to be having trouble with white Democratic males in some polls, work to shore up his chances with them--unless you want Clinton, whom you rightly have called part of the status quo (at least, of the Democratic status quo, which is not as bad the GOP version, but still not very progressive), to win!

Third, while it is too late for this election cycle, clearly caucuses have too many problems to trust. Secret ballot is essential for democracy. I realize that Nevada, like many states, went to the caucus system in order to move their "primary" forward in time, but there has to be another solution. Even in Iowa too many voters who work evenings are disenfranchised. In Nevada this was compounded by holding them on Saturday, considered the Sabbath by Jews, during worship time! In a land dedicated to religious liberty, no one should have to choose between participation in the democratic process and fulfilling one's religious obligations. (Yes, I would also oppose holding such a process on Friday evening which begins the Sabbath for Orthodox Jews and is also a time of worship for Muslims. We are becoming ever more pluralistic in this nation and must make adjustments.)

Finally, while I stand by my congratulations to the Clintons and their supporters, after NH and now Nevada, I have to ask, "Is Bill Clinton going to throw a temper tantrum the night before every primary?" When Hillary said she "found her voice" in NH, many of us hoped that meant she was going shut Bill up! I mean it's in very bad taste, to say the least, to agree to certain caucus or primary rules, then sue to have them changed when a key union endorses a rival, then charge voter suppression and lowball expectations ("Obama has a 5 point advantage!"--something no poll supported), and then engage in voter intimidation by visiting caucus sites on the day of voting! And this is to give the Clinton campaign the benefit of the doubt and say that they weren't behind the anti-Obama robo-calls! Such behavior might win the nomination for Sen. Clinton--and may do such harm to the party in the process that we lose the general election in November. It will certainly remind many independents and moderate Republicans of everything they DON'T want to return to about the Clinton years! (I doubt seriously that Bill Clinton will follow up on his plans to investigate supposed voter suppression in Nevada now that Hillary won!! Hypocrite.) John McCain may well become the GOP nominee--and he is the one GOP candidate that many polls show beating Hillary. Do we want to get only 49% of the country--or become so close that the GOP dirty tricks squad can steal another election! If we want to win decisively in November then the nominee must be a uniting rather than dividing figure. I think that's ALREADY a longshot for Sen. Clinton--but it will be impossible if Bill Clinton doesn't shut up his fat mouth, already!!

I am worried about the apparent split between Latino/a and African-American voters. The Clintons' tactics are exacerbating such a split.

Sen. Obama, I hope you are rested and refreshed. It will be a long week in SC. And if Bill Clinton is going door to door throughout African-American neighborhoods, as he promised, you must, too. Bring every African-American supporter--and hopefully, John Edwards and others will help you with poor whites. You need some help with Southern white women, too. Roll out everything you've got--this is the big one. Without a clear win in SC, you won't survive Tsunami Tuesday, sir.

Meanwhile, I hope you get more Latino/a endorsements in the West.

Young people: Your numbers were incredibly impressive in Iowa and good in NH, but not in Nevada. Let's go! If you want real change, big change, and your voices to count, you MUST TURN OUT IN DROVES!