5 Reasons Hillary Should Be Worried

From The Politico comes this excellent article by Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen.

Highlights on the 5 reasons:

1. She lost the delegate derby. Pure and simple, this is a war to win delegates, one that might not be decided until this summer’s Democratic convention. And when the smoke cleared this morning, it appeared that Barack Obama had ended up with slightly more delegates in the 22 states. Obama’s campaign says the senator finished ahead by 14 delegates. With results still coming in, Clinton’s campaign says the candidates finished within five or six delegates of each other. Either way, Super Tuesday was essentially a draw. Clinton may still hold the edge overall, but Obama is closing in rapidly.
2. She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. (My note: At last count, Clinton appeared to have a VERY slight lead, here.) Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago. At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead — in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone. One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him. This is especially troubling for Clinton since the schedule slows dramatically now and a full month will pass before the next big-state showdown. All of this allows candidates ample time to introduce themselves to voters in each state — which plays to Obama’s core strengths.
3. She lost more states. Obama carried 14 states, six more than Clinton, and showed appeal in every geographical region. His win in bellwether Missouri was impressive by nearly every measure, marked by victories among men and women, secular and churchgoing voters, and urban and suburban voters. (My note: If Obama squeaks out a win today in NM--we may not know until tonight sometime--it will show he can win in a heavily Latino state--even more than CO--where the popular Latino Gov. "all but" endorsed Clinton.
4. She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing. He raised more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than $14 million. The implication is hard to ignore: Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward.
5. The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests. In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine. Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia — all of which have significant percentages of black voters. Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son. The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stretch of states — places like Ohio and Pennsylvania — where she will be strongly favored to win. So it couldn’t be any clearer as to why the supposedly inevitable candidacy is anything but — even when she’s supposedly winning.

I would add that Obama has time to eat away at her Ohio and PA leads and to win big in TX in March. Also, even if the media keep spinning last night in Clinton's favor, it will count in the popular mind as one win. Obama has many chances to win during the rest of the month. The Clinton spin that they "stopped the Obama momentum" ain't true. They just slowed it down. Her desire for a series of new debates with him shows how desperate she is for free air time.

Obama's Super Tuesday: Jack & Jill's View

Here is an excellent analysis of the results from Jack and Jill Politics.

Obama's Super Tuesday - The Morning After

Less than one year ago, when he announced, Barack Obama was a sitting United States Senator of about 2 years.

Hillary Clinton was INEVITABLE.

And February 5th was to be her coronation.

Skeptical Brotha would say, with reference to the Clinton candidacy, that ' Resistance Is Futile'. I told him, way back then, it might be futile, but some fights, you just gotta take.

On February 5, 2008, Barack Obama took on the most formidable political machine in Democratic Party Politics, and beat it in 13 out of the 22 contests.(Might be 14, but the vote isn't totally in from New Mexico)

He began with absolutely NOTHING in February 2007, and was able, in about a year, to put together a grassroots campaign nationally that not only is self-financing, but also gets out the vote.

A Black man won Alabama and Georgia.

A Black man won states like Utah, Idaho, North Dakota, that only see Black folk on tv and in the movies.

Look at the list of his victories:
Obama has won the following states:
Alaska
Utah
Colorado
Idaho
Minnesota
Connecticut
Kansas
North Dakota
Alabama
Delaware
Missouri
Illinois
Georgia

As for those states he lost:
Two weeks ago, Hillary was leading in MA by 37 points, Obama lost to her by 15 points. He erased a 22% deficit in less than two weeks. In NY, she was ahead by 28% on January 26th, but she ended up beating him by 14%, cutting her lead in half. Same thing in New Jersey - he lost, but not by what he was down two weeks.
He is a strong national candidate, as of this morning.

I agree with Angry Independent that we, will have to make the case for Obama, for those that support him, so I will bring up points that out alert readers have made:
Coming out of South Carolina, Obama was close to being branded the ' Black Candidate', due to the Dogwhistle Race Baiting of the Clintons. And, while the Kennedy Endorsement didn't 'deliver' Massachusetts, Cynthia Tucker of the Atlanta Journal Constitution made a brilliant observation:
The Kennedy Endorsement stopped, dead in its tracks, the 'Ghettoization' of Obama. And, indeed, it did.Super Tuesday helped put the nail in the coffin about Obama being ' The Black Candidate'. It was very convenient for the MSM, as they went along with The Clintons to try and press the narrative, even after Obama won in 90%+ White Iowa, and came within 2 points in 90%+ New Hampshire, and won Rural Nevada.But, winning in Alaska, Utah, Idaho and North Dakota, will put that ' Black Candidate' mess to bed.

The ' Hispanics won't vote for a Black Candidate' Memo. It's a blanket statement, and it's not true universally. It depends upon THE STATE, and that is encouraging too.

Would WHITE MEN who chose John Edwards, give Obama a shake? The answer, seems to be a YES, even in the Deep South.

Could Obama win in the 'Heartland', and the victories in Kansas and Missouri say YES.

Obama won more states and more delegates (excluding super delegates). Senator Clinton only exceeded 60% in one state, TN,while Senator Obama exceeded 60% in at least six states. Senator Obama did NOT lose any state that he was expected to win, but he did pick up states, namely CT. In fact, he was still polling behind her in AL up until yesterday.Clinton didn't crack 60% in her own state.I don't think it's insignificant that Senator Obama made history yesterday by becoming the first African American to win state-wide in several states, including MO.Obama made considerable gains among White men and women, solidified his base, made slight in roads with Latinos, but Clinton only held her base.

On the delegate front, here's the news this morning:
The Obama camp projects topping Clinton by nine delegates, 845 to 836.NBC News, which is projecting delegates based on the Democratic Party's complex formula, figures Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton.

IT IS A RACE NOW, folks.Super Tuesday was supposed to break Barack Obama, and it didn't.

Super Tuesday was supposed to show that he wasn't ready for the big stage, and it didn't.

Super Tuesday was supposed to send Obama packing back to Illinois, and it didn't.

He won more states.
He won more diversity of states.
He won more delegates.

YES.WE.CAN.

Clinton Wins "Big" States; Obama Wins More States; Delegate Count Close

Well, while last night was not as good as I hoped it would be for Barack Obama, it was about as good as could reasonably be expected given that a week ago Clinton still had a 20 point lead nationally and commanding leads in most of the primary and caucus states up for grabs, yesterday. Given the short time frame since his SC win, Obama did very, very well. I would like to have seen him pick up MA and AZ (never really believing he had a chance for a complete win in CA), but am otherwise very content. Had there been 2 weeks between SC and "Super Tuesday," instead of one week, I am convinced that last night would have been very bad for Sen. Clinton, instead of this near-draw. Remember, this crazy schedule was partly influenced by the Clintons who had planned to end the primary season early. Until Obama's surprise win in Iowa last month, Clinton believed she would have sewn up the nomination on 05 February. She hasn't and Obama is in great shape to win the races that follow (except, possibly, PA, where she has a tremendous following).

• Obama won all 7 of the caucus states.
• Obama won most of the "red" states which usually vote Republican, but could possibly flip Democratic in the Fall if he is the nominee.
• Obama made gains among Latinos, though Clinton still has an advantage among them. (At least this should end the stupid media claim that "Latinos won't vote for a black man!")
• Obama made large gains among Clinton's key strength--women, especially white women.
• Obama won more white males, especially in the South, so some real racial progress has been made.
• The Obama campaign claims it won more delegates, but I think the final results are not yet in for delegate count. It seems fairly close. (Obama claims it is 847 to 834, not counting unpledged superdelegates.) ABC News' delegate counter claims Clinton now leads with 872 to Obama's 793. Even if ABC is right, that's only a 79 delegate lead for Clinton which can erased later this month.

State by State results:

AL: Obama ; Huckabee wins for GOP

AK: Obama; Romney for GOP

AR: Clinton; Huckabee for GOP. Note: Clinton was 1st Lady of Arkansas before she was U.S. First Lady and Huckabee followed Bill Clinton as Arkansas governor. So, this was locked up for both.

AZ: Clinton; McCain for GOP. This was a slight disappointment since it looked like Obama had a real chance here (and it was close). Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), who is very popular, endorsed Obama and is on his shortlist for VP. This is McCain's home state, of course. Notice that Clinton and Obama split the Latino vote here fairly evenly.

CA: Clinton; McCain for GOP. The final delegate split in CA will be interesting.

CO: Obama; Romney for GOP. Obama won the Latino vote here. Denver, CO will host the '08 Democratic Convention.

CT: Obama; McCain for GOP. This was a big win for Obama since CT is New York's "backyard," and since Clinton is a favorite daughter from her years in Yale Law School.

DE: Obama; McCain for GOP.

GA: Obama; Huckabee for GOP.

ID: Obama; No GOP race. Another red state victory for Obama, but it is doubtful that ANY Democratic candidate can carry Idaho in the general election.

IL: Obama; McCain for GOP. This was Obama's home turf, but Clinton grew up here and hoped to make inroads (and failed). 153 delegates were at stake.

KS: Obama; No GOP race yesterday. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D), an Obama supporter, will probably be on his shortlist for running mates.

MA: Clinton; Romney for GOP. This was my big disappointment. I knew Clinton had enjoyed a huge lead, but I thought with Gov. Deval Patrick (D), and both of MA's senators (Kennedy and Kerry) backing Obama, he might pull off a win. Hard to beat the clock. Clinton, naturally, is crowing over this one, saying that she "beat the Kennedys" in there own backyard.

MN: Obama; Romney for GOP. Recent polls had shown a 6% lead for Clinton, so this was a good win. MN is a strong peace state and I think the MoveOn.org endorsement may have helped Obama put this one over the top.

MO: Obama; McCain for GOP. This was a squeaker and the AP wire service and some TV networks originally called this for Clinton! This will be a key battleground in the gen. election: Missouri has voted with the presidential winner every time since Harry Truman in '48! It is a "middle" middle America. I think Obama can take McCain here, but can Clinton?

MT: No Dem. race, yesterday; Romney for GOP.

ND: Obama; Romney for GOP.

NJ: Clinton; McCain for GOP. Too many people were surprised at this result. Yes, recent polls had shown it to be competitive, but when Obama flew in for a last minute campaign stop this weekend, he received a far smaller crowd than everywhere else, which I thought was a telling sign. NJ seldom votes for a different candidate than NY and is in the same TV broadcast areas.

NM: Still too close to call! This would be a significant victory for Obama: Heavy Latino population and Gov. Richardson (D) (himself a former presidential candidate) seemed to "all but" endorse Clinton by watching the Superbowl Sunday with fmr. Pres. Bill Clinton. No GOP race yesterday.

NY: Clinton; McCain for GOP. Since Clinton is Sen. from NY, there was little doubt she would win. I will be interested to see if Obama managed to win NYC (as seemed possible) and poach a number of delegates from her.

OK: Clinton; McCain for GOP. Clinton had a big lead here and Obama didn't have time to campaign here.

TN: Clinton; Huckabee for GOP.

UT: Obama; Romney for GOP.

WV: No Dem. race yesterday; Huckabee for GOP.

American Samoa: Clinton; No GOP race here yesterday.

No results found, yet for Democrats Abroad.

Next up:

Saturday 09 Feb. : Louisiana (primary; 56 delegates at stake; Obama favored to win); Nebraska (caucus, 24 del.; Obama favored to win); Washington state (caucus; 78 dels; Clinton favored since Gov. Christine Gregoire, and Sens. Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell have all backed her. But Washington is a fairly liberal state with a strong peace contingency, so Obama may be able to pull this one out with a good ground game.); U.S. Virgin Islands (primary; 3 del.; I don't know who to favor here: Clinton has an advantage in U.S. territories because of name recognition--they are mostly too far away for the candidates to campaign in person. But the Virgin Islands have a large black population, so we'll see.)

Sunday 10 Feb.: Maine (caucus, 24 del.; Is Maine like New Hampshire?)

Tuesday 12 Feb.: District of Columbia (primary, 15 del.; Obama favored to win); Maryland (primary, 70 del.; Obama favored to win); Virginia (primary, 83 del.; Obama favored to win).

Tuesday 19 Feb.: Hawaii (caucus, 20 del.; I have no idea who is favored); Wisconsin (primary, 74 del., Obama favored to win)

Clinton is counting on the large states of Ohio and Texas in March and Pennsylvania in April, but Obama now has more money and may be able to roll into March better equipped. The longer the race goes on, the better his chances.

Jack and Jill Politics

Since I am trying to avoid watching anything about Tsunami Tuesday until tomorrow (less stress, longer life), this is a good time for me to profile the blog Jack and Jill Politics, run by Jack Turner and Jill Tubman. This is a major U.S. political blog from an African-American middle class viewpoint.

The "blogosphere" is dominated by the voices of white men, but that is changing. Jack and Jill Politics is an excellent way for progressive whites to keep in touch with the views of African-Americans. Yes, having "real black friends" would also be good, but, let's face it, there's a certain amount of self-censorship that happens in mixed-race social situations. In many cases, there is still much at stake in workplace relations, etc. that would be risked if "full disclosure" came in every conversation. Sad, but true.

Also, while there are exceptions (such as the church I attend), whites and blacks mostly still worship in different settings, live in different neighborhoods (mine is one of the few partial exceptions in Louisville), go to different places for entertainment, etc. And the dominant group usually knows less about the "minority" groups than they (originally for survival reasons) know about the majority. (Surveys have shown that African-Americans are much better at predicting white answers than vice versa.)

So, fellow white progressives, I urge you to decrease your ignorance. One way is to read regularly on black political blogs. There are many of them, but I am pushing Jack and Jill Politics first because it was one of the earliest this progressive cracker found. Which is more helpful during an election year that may result in the first black president? Watching a bunch of white men on TV talk about "the black vote" or read the thoughts of active, politically-informed African-Americans? Hmm.

Bluegrass Roots Endorses Obama

The owners/editors of Bluegrass Roots, one of the best progressive, Democratic political blogs in the Commonwealth of Kentucky, have endorsed Barack Obama for President. This is all the more significant since they were both previously Edwards supporters, as I was. You can read their endorsement here. It explains why they endorsed Edwards and why, once Edwards dropped out, they switched to Obama. I hope this is a trend among the netroots in KY.

Yes We Can

The following video was created by Obama supporters. It sets his NH primary speech to music. I only wish I had not been sick so that I could have sent this to people throughout Super Tuesday states this weekend.

Obama/Clinton in Statistical Dead Heat on Eve of Super Tuesday

I have been ill for a few days--too ill to come down to a cold basement and blog or even check email. I will not watch the Super Tuesday returns tomorrow because my nerves would give out and I might have a relapse.

Because this is all about delegates, Obama doesn't have to win tomorrow--just keep from losing. If he keeps the delegate count close, plus wins enough states outright for some psychological victories, then the momentum should continue to be on his side in the races that follow tomorrow. If, however, Clinton wins big early, she won't likely win enough delegates tomorrow to win the nomination outright (as she once dreamed--this schedule was originally--back when she was considered the "inevitable" nominee--urged on party leaders by her campaign so that she could wrap up the nomination early and spend most of the Spring preparing for the GOP in the Fall). But she might stop Obama's momentum tomorrow as she did in NH.

5 key variables:

1. Early voting. Many primaries allowed for early voting (which may have been 40% of the total in California!) when Clinton still had double-digit leads over Obama and 85% of the institutional Democratic Party support. It could be her firewall against the Obama momentum.
2. Latinos: I do not buy into the media hype about Latinos refusing to vote for African-Americans. But the Clintons (and they come as a package) had a long and good history with Latinos and so, early on, you saw more support for Hillary Clinton by Latinos--just as you early on saw more Clinton support among African-Americans than Obama. That gap is narrowing (or appears to be) and more Latino leaders are endorsing Obama, but we won't know how many until tomorrow night.
3. Women: 51% of the nation, nearly 60% of the Democratic Party, especially in CA. Can Obama get enough of the women's vote? He did not in NH, but he did in Iowa and S. Carolina and it split fairly evenly in NV. Older white women have been Hillary's base, but is Obama cutting into it--and, if so, has he done so well enough by tomorrow.
4. Edwards' voters: Where will they go? And, will the Edwards' voters who voted early claim some delegates in several of these primaries and caucuses? (The Edwards' delegates will go to the national convention uncommitted, as will his superdelegates.)
5. Young voters. This has been Obama's strength, although Clinton has attracted some, too. Their turnout could be the key. And weather could be a key factor in turnout. We've had some of the worst weather this winter this past week.

I'll see everyone on Wednesday. My nerves simply cannot take watching this tomorrow.